Fade the Crowd.
Bet Against the Worst Traders.
Built for humans and machines — API access available.
We track the most consistently wrong wallets on Polymarket so you can see where the crowd loses money — in real time.
Live Polymarket data · Updated every few minutes
For educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
Performance Leaderboard (30d resolved)
Minimum 5 resolved positions
Fade is a research archive and no longer computes rankings on demand. See the historical leaderboard or what the dataset showed.
| # | Wallet | ROI | Net Cashflow |
|---|---|---|---|
| This preview was computed live and is not part of the archive. The full historical leaderboard is still available. | |||
How Fade The Crowd Works
Ingest Trades
We pull every trade from Polymarket in real-time
Track Performance
We calculate PnL, ROI, and win rates for every wallet
Rank the Worst
We surface wallets that consistently lose money
You Fade Their Bets
Take the opposite side of the worst performers
Why fading the crowd works
Bad traders aren't just unlucky — they're systematically wrong. They buy overpriced YES positions driven by FOMO, panic sell at the worst times, and chase narratives instead of probabilities.
This creates negative expected value that compounds over time. By identifying wallets with consistently poor judgment, you can find contrarian signals that the market hasn't priced in yet.
Of course, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Use this data as one input among many, not as a trading signal.
Metrics We Track
- $Net Cashflow
Sell proceeds minus buy costs — proxy for realized PnL
- %ROI
Net cashflow divided by total volume traded
- WWin Rate
Percentage of sells above average buy price
Data Sources
- APIPolymarket Data API
Real-time trade feed with wallet addresses
- APIPolymarket Gamma API
Market metadata, questions, and categories
- 30dRolling Window
All metrics computed over trailing 30d